Holiday Spending Continues to Disappoint

In the matter of how large the holiday sales pie will be this year, the size apparently will be small. That means retailers, both store-based and Internet-based, will need to take business from one another, and it is the companies that take the most in that battle that have a chance of doing well — but only modestly. There is no rising tide. Consumers have not bought holiday gifts in large enough numbers in 2013 and will not between now and the end of the year.

According to new data from Gallup on holiday spending intentions:

Americans’ average prediction for the total amount they will spend on Christmas gifts this season is now $740, midway between the $786 they estimated in October and the $704 in November. Given how the most recent prediction compares with previous years — coming in below last year’s $770 and falling well short of consumers’ spending intentions in years prior to the 2008 financial crisis — the 2013 holiday season will likely be a ho-hum one for retailers.

By way of contrast, the figure was above $900 in two of the three years before the recession.

The forecast puts brick-and-mortar companies in more of a bind than e-commerce firms. Amazon.com Inc.’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) revenue in 2008 was only $19.1 million. This year that number is likely to be closer to $90 million. Amazon has sucked much of the air out of the holiday retail room. For contrast, Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) revenue for all of last year was $29 billion. For giant Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), revenue was $73.3 billion for the same period.

While market share is critical, overall sales across the holiday economy are more important. The retail system continues to support tens of thousands of stores operated by the dozen largest retailers by sales. That multibillion infrastructure is losing more of its foundation by the year. Amazon, at least, can operate without many people who deal with the consumer face-to-face. Traditional retailers do not have that cost advantage. Without shopping center and mall visitors who aggressively spend money, the entire store-based system breaks down.

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Americans have decided not to spend very much this holiday season, at least against the annual numbers posted in the best years of the past decade. Retailers cannot afford many more holidays like this one.